The first week of the NFL season will feature a Sunshine State showdown when the Jaguars travel south to face the Dolphins.
There should be plenty of offense in this affair, and my Jaguars vs. Dolphins predictions for September 8 have keyed in on the receiving yards of Evan Engram. Read all about it in the NFL picks ahead.
Jaguars vs Dolphins prediction
My best betEvan Engram Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysisThey say diamonds are a girl’s best friend. The same could be said of a tight end’s relationship with a quarterback — especially when talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Only four teams targeted their tight ends in the passing game more than the Jags in 2023. In fact, nearly 27% of Trevor Lawrence’s pass attempts last season went to a TE. Evan Engram was the main benefactor, especially over the final five games of the season.
Against the Browns, Buccaneers, and Titans, Engram saw double-digit targets. That included a season-high 15 against Tampa Bay, a game where he caught 10 passes for 95 yards. He was targeted at least seven times in 13 of Jacksonville’s 17 games last season, resulting in 11 games where he went over 45 yards receiving.
This matchup with the Miami Dolphins is one that should lead to him going Over the 45.5 total once again. Last season, the Dolphins allowed 904 receiving yards to TEs on 91 catches, with both marks placing them among the worst 11 teams in the league. They also allowed the eighth-most targets to tight ends.
Coming off a season where Engram caught 114 passes for 963 yards, there’s a strong chance he’s going to be targeted even more. The departure of Calvin Ridley means Lawrence is likely to lean on Engram a bit more in this opening game than he did in last season’s curtain raiser. He caught five passes for 49 yards in that contest, the fewest yards Engram gained in his opening four games.
There’s two other factors that must be taken into account as well. Jalen Ramsey is dealing with a hamstring issue, and his status for Sunday’s game is in the air. If the Dolphins are without their star corner, it’ll impact their ability to enjoy single coverage on Christian Kirk or Brian Thomas Jr.
This will make it tougher for Miami to key on Engram, and even if Ramsey plays, he’s likely not going to be at full strength. Add in the concerns with the Miami pass rush, and Lawrence should find time in the pocket to look for his favorite target.
This game also has the second-highest point total on the Sunday NFL slate, meaning there should be plenty of offense.
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Jaguars vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Evan Engram 45+ receiving yardsEngram anytime touchdownDolphins moneyline
+550 at BetMGM
Lawrence threw 10 passes in Jacksonville’s final preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons. Over his two drives, he targeted Engram four times.
Both drives ended the same way — with Engram catching a touchdown pass. The Dolphins allowed seven TD passes to tight ends last season, with only five teams conceding more. I’ll take Engram to find paydirt here.
As a Jaguars fan (yes, we do exist!), it hurts to admit the Fins are the better team and should win.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should cause serious problems for the Jacksonville secondary, and the Dolphins are 10-1 as favorites in games started by Tua Tagovailoa in his career. I’ll take the big-play ability of Miami against a suspect defense in Week 1.
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Jaguars vs Dolphins odds
Jaguars vs Dolphins live odds
Jaguars vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: Jacksonville +3 (-110) | Miami -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Jacksonville +140 | Miami -165
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-11) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jaguars vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dolphins are favored by 3.5 points, a spread that has stayed consistent since it opened in May. Miami is -175 on the moneyline, with the Jaguars paying +145 to win outright.
- The total of 49.5 has mostly stayed constant since opening in May as well, although it did dip to 48.5 briefly on Thursday. Both sides are evenly matched at -110 at BetMGM.
- This is a tricky total, especially as I have the game projected right as a 28-21 Dolphins win. JAX will miss the big-play ability of Ridley, and Lawrence will need some time to build an in-game relationship with Thomas Jr. That said, the Dolphins saw 68+ points scored in three of their first four games last season.
